⌚ Kahnemans Rational Economic Model

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Kahnemans Rational Economic Model



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Rational choice-exchange theory - Society and Culture - MCAT - Khan Academy

Most of the key ideas, most of the key examples, and much of the wording were there in the early draft. But that draft lacks the authority that was gained during the years that we spent anticipating objections. We published the paper in Econometrica. The choice of venue turned out to be important; the identical paper, published in Psychological Review , would likely have had little impact on economics. But our decision was not guided by a wish to influence economics. Econometrica just happened to be the journal where the best papers on decision-making to date had been published, and we were aspiring to be in that company.

And there was another way in which the impact of prospect theory depended crucially on the medium, as well as the message. Prospect theory was a formal theory, and its formal nature was the key to the impact it had in economics. Every discipline of social science, I believe, has some ritual tests of competence, which must be passed before a piece of work is considered worthy of attention. Such tests are necessary to prevent information overload, and they are also important aspects of the tribal life of the disciplines. In particular, they allow insiders to ignore just about anything that is done by members of other tribes, and to feel no scholarly guilt about doing so. To serve this screening function efficiently, the competence tests usually focus on some aspect of form or method, and have little or nothing to do with substance.

Prospect theory passed such a test in economics, and its observations became a legitimate though optional part of the scholarly discourse in that discipline. It is a strange and rather arbitrary process that selects some pieces of scientific writing for relatively enduring fame while committing most of what is published to almost immediate oblivion.

Framing and mental accounting Amos and I completed prospect theory during the academic year of to , which I spent at the Center for Advanced Studies at Stanford, while he was visiting the psychology department there. Around that time, we began work on our next project, which became the study of framing. This was also the year in which the second most important professional friendship in my life — with Richard Thaler — had its start.

A framing effect is demonstrated by constructing two transparently equivalent versions of a given problem, which nevertheless yield predictably different choices. In this version, people prefer the program that will save lives for sure. In this formulation most people prefer the gamble. If the same respondents are given the two problems on separate occasions, many give incompatible responses.

When confronted with their inconsistency, people are quite embarrassed. They are also quite helpless to resolve the inconsistency, because there are no moral intuitions to guide a choice between different sizes of a surviving population. Amos and I began creating pairs of problems that revealed framing effects while working on prospect theory. We used them to show sensitivity to gains and losses as in the lives example , and to illustrate the inadequacy of a formulation in which the only relevant outcomes are final states. In that article, we also showed that a single-stage gamble could be rearranged as a two-stage gamble in a manner that left the bottom-line probabilities and outcomes unchanged but reversed preferences.

Later, we developed examples in which respondents are asked to make simultaneous choices in two problems, A and B. One of the problems involves gains and elicits a risk-averse choice; the other problem involves losses and elicits risk-seeking. A majority of respondents made both these choices. However, the problems were constructed so that the combination of choices that people made was actually dominated by the combination of the options they had rejected. These are not parlor-game demonstrations of human stupidity. The ease with which framing effects can be demonstrated reveals a fundamental limitation of the human mind. Framing effects violate that basic requirement: the respondents who exhibit susceptibility to framing effects wish their minds were able to avoid them.

We were able to conceive of only two kinds of mind that would avoid framing effects: 1 If responses to all outcomes and probabilities were strictly linear, the procedures that we used to produce framing effects would fail. Both conditions are obviously impossible. Framing effects violate a basic requirement of rationality which we called invariance Kahneman and Tversky, and Arrow called extensionality. It took us a long time and several iterations to develop a forceful statement of this contribution to the rationality debate, which we presented several years after our framing paper Tversky and Kahneman, Another advance that we made in our first framing article was the inclusion of riskless choice problems among our demonstrations of framing.

In making that move, we had help from a new friend. Richard Thaler was a young economist, blessed with a sharp and irreverent mind. While still in graduate school, he had trained his ironic eye on his own discipline and had collected a set of pithy anecdotes demonstrating obvious failures of basic tenets of economic theory in the behavior of people in general — and of his very conservative professors in Rochester in particular. Dick realized that the endowment effect, which is a genuine puzzle in the context of standard economic theory, is readily explained by two assumptions derived from prospect theory. First, the carriers of utility are not states owning or not owning the wine , but changes — getting the wine or giving it up.

And giving up is weighted more than getting, by loss aversion. The endowment effect was not the only thing we learned from Dick. Dick showed how people segregate their decisions into separate accounts, then struggle to keep each of these accounts in the black. One of his compelling examples was the couple who drove through a blizzard to a basketball game because they had already paid for the tickets, though they would have stayed at home if the tickets had been free. People report that they would be very likely still to buy a ticket if they had lost the cash, presumably because the loss has been charged to general revenue. On the other hand, they describe themselves as quite likely to go home if they have lost an already purchased ticket, presumably because they do not want to pay twice to see the same show.

Behavioral economics Our interaction with Thaler eventually proved to be more fruitful than we could have imagined at the time, and it was a major factor in my receiving the Nobel Prize. Although I do not wish to renounce any credit for my contribution, I should say that in my view the work of integration was actually done mostly by Thaler and the group of young economists that quickly began to form around him, starting with Colin Camerer and George Loewenstein, and followed by the likes of Matthew Rabin, David Laibson, Terry Odean, and Sendhil Mullainathan.

Amos and I provided quite a few of the initial ideas that were eventually integrated into the thinking of some economists, and prospect theory undoubtedly afforded some legitimacy to the enterprise of drawing on psychology as a source of realistic assumptions about economic agents. But the founding text of behavioral economics was the first article in which Thaler presented a series of vignettes that challenged fundamental tenets of consumer theory. In , Amos and I attended a meeting of the Cognitive Science Society in Rochester, where we had a drink with Eric Wanner, a psychologist who was then vice-president of the Sloan Foundation.

Eric told us that he was interested in promoting the integration of psychology and economics, and asked for our advice on ways to go about it. I have a clear memory of the answer we gave him. We also thought that it was pointless to encourage psychologists to make themselves heard by economists, but that it could be useful to encourage and support the few economists who were interested in listening.

The first grant that he made in that program was for Dick Thaler to spend an academic year visiting me at the University of British Columbia, in Vancouver. That year was one of the best in my career. We worked as a trio that also included the economist Jack Knetsch, with whom I had already started constructing surveys on a variety of issues, including valuation of the environment and public views about fairness in the marketplace.

Jack had done experimental studies of the endowment effect and had seen the implications of that effect for the Coase theorem and for issues of environmental policy. We did a lot together that year. We also conducted multiple surveys in which we used experimentally varied vignettes to identify the rules of fairness that the public would apply to merchants, landlords, and employers Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler, a. Our central observation was that in many contexts the existing situation e. For example, cutting the wages of an employee merely because he could be replaced by someone who would accept a lower wage is unfair, although paying a lower wage to the replacement of an employee who quit is entirely acceptable.

We submitted the paper to the American Economic Review and were utterly surprised by the outcome: the paper was accepted without revision. Luckily for us, the editor had asked two economists quite open to our approach to review the paper. We later learned that one of the referees was George Akerlof and the other was Alan Olmstead, who had studied the failures of markets to clear during an acute gas shortage.

We decided to investigate these ideas using experiments for real stakes. The games that we invented for this purpose have become known as the ultimatum game and the dictator game. Alas, while writing up our second paper on fairness Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler, b we learned that we had been scooped on the ultimatum game by Werner Guth and his colleagues, who had published experiments using the same design a few years earlier.

I remember being quite crestfallen when I learned this. I would have been even more depressed if I had known how important the ultimatum game would eventually become. Most of the economics I know I learned that year, from Jack and Dick, my two willing teachers, and from what was in fact my first experience of communicating across tribal boundaries. The game is played by a group of, say, fifteen people.

We played the game a few times, once with the faculty of the psychology department at U. The results, although not surprising to an economist, struck me as magical. The group was doing the right thing collectively, although conversations with the participants and the obvious statistical analyses did not reveal any consistent strategies that made sense. It took me some time to realize that the magic we were observing was an equilibrium: the pattern we saw existed because no other pattern could be sustained.

This idea had not been in my intellectual bag of tools. That was the closest my research ever came to core economics, and since that time I have been mostly cheering Thaler and behavioral economics from the sidelines. There has been much to cheer about. As a mark of the progress that has been made, I recall a seminar in psychology and economics that I co-taught with George Akerlof, after Anne Treisman and I had moved from the University of British Columbia to Berkeley in I remember being struck by the reverence with which the rationality assumption was treated even by a free thinker such as George, and also by his frequent warnings to the students that they should not let themselves be seduced by the material we were presenting, lest their careers be permanently damaged.

This opinion was quite common at the time. When Matthew Rabin joined the Berkeley economics department as a young assistant professor and chose to immerse himself in psychology, many considered the move professional suicide. Eric Wanner and the Russell Sage Foundation continued to support behavioral economics over the years. I was instrumental in the idea of using some of that support to set up a summer school for graduate students and young faculty in that field, and I helped Dick Thaler and Colin Camerer organize the first one, in When the fifth summer school convened in , David Laibson, who had been a participant in , was tenured at Harvard and was one of the three organizers.

Terrance Odean and Sendhil Mullainathan, who had also participated as students, came back to lecture as successful researchers with positions in two of the best universities in the world. It was a remarkable experience to hear Matthew Rabin teach a set of guidelines for developing theories in behavioral economics — including the suggestion that the standard economic model should be a special case of the more complex and general models that were to be constructed. We had come a long way. Although behavioral economics has enjoyed much more rapid progress and gained more respectability in economics than appeared possible fifteen years ago, it is still a minority approach and its influence on most fields of economics is negligible. Many economists believe that it is a passing fad, and some hope that it will be.

The future may prove them right. But many bright young economists are now betting their careers on the expectation that the current trend will last. And such expectations have a way of being self-fulfilling. Later years Anne Treisman and I married and moved together to U. Amos and I were then at the peak of our joint game, and completely committed to our collaboration. For a few years, we managed to maintain it, by spending every second weekend together and by placing multiple phone calls each day, some lasting several hours. But eventually the goose that had laid the golden eggs languished, and our collaboration tapered off. Although this outcome now appears inevitable, it came as a painful surprise to us.

We had completely failed to appreciate how critically our successful interaction had depended on our being together at the birth of every significant idea, on our rejection of any formal division of labor, and on the infinite patience that became a luxury when we could meet only periodically. We struggled for years to revive the magic we had lost, but in vain. We were again trying when Amos died. When he learned in the early months of that he had only a few months to live, we decided to edit a joint book on decision-making that would cover some of the progress that had been made since we had started working together on the topic more than twenty years before Kahneman and Tversky, We planned an ambitious preface as a joint project, but I think we both knew from the beginning that we would not be granted enough time to complete it.

The preface I wrote alone was probably my most painful writing experience. During the intervening years, of course, we had continued to work, sometimes together sometimes with other collaborators. Amos took the lead in our most important joint piece, an extension of prospect theory to the multipleoutcome case in the spirit of rank-dependent models. He also carried out spectacular studies of the role of argument and conflict in decision-making, in collaborations with Eldar Shafir and with Itamar Simonson, as well as influential work on violations of procedural invariance in collaborations with Shmuel Sattath and with Paul Slovic. He engaged in a deep exploration of the mathematical structure of decision theories with Peter Wakker.

And, in his last years, Amos was absorbed in the development of support theory, a general approach to thinking under uncertainty that his students have continued to explore. These are only his major programmatic research efforts in the field of decision-making — he did much more. I, too, kept busy, and also kept moving. Moving East also made it easier to maintain frequent contacts with friends, children and adored grandchildren in Israel.

Over the years I enjoyed productive collaborations with Dale Miller in the development of a theory of counterfactual thinking Kahneman and Miller, , and with Anne Treisman, in studies of visual attention and object perception. In addition to the work on fairness and on the endowment effect that we did with Dick Thaler, Jack Knetsch and I carried out studies of the valuation of public goods that became quite controversial and had a great influence on my own thinking. Further studies of that problem with Ilana Ritov eventually led to the idea that the translation of attitudes into dollars involves the almost arbitrary choice of a scale factor, leading some people who have quite similar values to state very different values of their willingness to pay, for no good reason Kahneman, Ritov and Schkade, With David Schkade and the famous jurist Cass Sunstein I extended this idea into a program of research on arbitrariness in punitive damage decisions, which may yet have some influence on policy Sunstein, Kahneman, Schkade and Ritov, The focus of my research for the past fifteen years has been the study of various aspects of experienced utility — the measure of the utility of outcomes as people actually live them.

The concept of utility in which I am interested was the one that Bentham and Edgeworth had in mind. However, experienced utility largely disappeared from economic discourse in the twentieth century, in favor of a notion that I call decision utility, which is inferred from choices and used to explain choices. The distinction could be of little relevance for fully rational agents, who presumably maximize experienced utility as well as decision utility. But if rationality cannot be assumed, the quality of consequences becomes worth measuring and the maximization of experienced utility becomes a testable proposition. Indeed, my colleagues and I have carried out experiments in which this proposition was falsified. These experiments exploit a simple rule that governs the assignment of remembered utility to past episodes in which an agent is passively exposed to a pleasant or unpleasant experience, such as watching a horrible film or an amusing one Frederickson and Kahneman, , or undergoing a colonoscopy Redelmeier and Kahneman, Remembered utility turns out to be determined largely by the peak intensity of the pleasure or discomfort experienced during the episode, and by the intensity of pleasure or discomfort when the episode ended.

The duration of the episode has almost no effect on its remembered utility. In accord with this rule, an episode of 60 seconds during which one hand is immersed in painfully cold water will leave a more aversive memory than a longer episode, in which the same 60 seconds are followed by another 30 seconds during which the temperature rises slightly. Although the extra 30 seconds are painful, they provide an improved end. When experimental participants are exposed to the two episodes, then given a choice of which to repeat, most choose the longer one Kahneman, Fredrickson, Schreiber and Redelmeier, In these and in other experiments of the same kind Schreiber and Kahneman, , people make wrong choices between experiences to which they may be exposed, because they are systematically wrong about their affective memories Our evidence contradicts the standard rational model, which does not distinguish between experienced utility and decision utility.

I have presented it as a new type of challenge to the assumption of rationality Kahneman, Most of my empirical work in recent years has been done in collaboration with my friend David Schkade. The current topic of our research is a study of well-being that builds on my previous research on experienced utility. We have assembled a multi-disciplinary team for an attempt to develop tools for measuring welfare, with the design specification that economists should be willing to take the measurements seriously. Another major effort went into an essay that attempted to update the notion of judgment heuristics. That work was done in close collaboration with a young colleague, Shane Frederick.

In the pains we took in the choice of every word it came close to matching my experiences with Amos Kahneman and Frederick, My Nobel lecture is an extension of that essay. One line of work that I hope may become influential is the development of a procedure of adversarial collaboration , which I have championed as a substitute for the format of critique-reply-rejoinder in which debates are currently conducted in the social sciences. Adversarial collaboration involves a good-faith effort to conduct debates by carrying out joint research — in some cases there may be a need for an agreed arbiter to lead the project and collect the data. Because there is no expectation of the contestants reaching complete agreement at the end of the exercise, adversarial collaborations will usually lead to an unusual type of joint publication, in which disagreements are laid out as part of a jointly authored paper.

An appendix in the Mellers et al. In another case I did not succeed in convincing two colleagues that we should engage in an adversarial collaboration, but we jointly developed another procedure that is also more constructive than the reply-rejoinder format. I hope that more efficient procedures for the conduct of controversies will be part of my legacy. Something dies in everyone who was affected by them. Amos made a great deal of difference, and when he died, life was dimmed and diminished for many of us. There is less intelligence in the world. There is less wit. There are many questions that will never be answered with the same inimitable combination of depth and clarity.

There are standards that will not be defended with the same mix of principle and good sense. Life has become poorer. There is a large Amos-shaped gap in the mosaic, and it will not be filled. It cannot be filled because Amos shaped his own place in the world, he shaped his life, and even his dying. And in shaping his life and his world, he changed the world and the life of many around him. Amos was the freest person I have known, and he was able to be free because he was also one of the most disciplined. Some of you may have tried to make Amos do something he did not want to do.

Unlike many of us, Amos could not be coerced or embarrassed into chores or empty rituals. In that sense he was free, and the object of envy for many of us. But the other side of freedom is the ability to find joy in what one does, and the ability to adapt creatively to the inevitable. I will say more about the joy later. Amos loved living. But he managed to die as he had lived — free. He died as he intended. He wanted to work to the last, and he did. He wanted to keep his privacy, and he did. He wanted to help his family through their ordeal, and he did. He wanted to hear the voices of his friends one last time, and he found a way to do that through the letters that he read with pleasure, sadness and pride, to the end.

There are many forms of courage, and Amos had them all. The indomitable serenity of his last few months is one. The civic courage of adopting principled and unpopular positions is another, and he had that too. And then there is the heroic, almost reckless courage, and he had that too. My first memory of Amos goes back to , when someone pointed out to me a thin and handsome lieutenant, wearing the red beret of the paratroopers, who had just taken the competitive entrance exam to the undergraduate program in Psychology at Hebrew University. The handsome lieutenant looked very pale, I remember. He had been wounded. The paratrooper unit to which he belonged had been performing an exercise with live fire in front of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces and all the military attaches.

Amos was a platoon commander. He sent one of his soldiers carrying a long metal tube loaded with an explosive charge, which was to be slid under the barbed wire of the position they were attacking, and was to be detonated to create an opening for the attacking troops. The soldier moved forward, placed the explosive charge, and lit the fuse. And then he froze, standing upright in the grip of some unaccountable attack of panic. The fuse was short and the soldier was certainly about to be killed. Amos leapt from behind the rock he was using for cover, ran to the soldier, and managed to jump at him and bring him down just before the charge exploded.

This was how he was wounded. Those who have been soldiers will recognize this act as one of almost unbelievable presence of mind and bravery. It was awarded the highest citation available in the Israeli army. Amos almost never mentioned this incident, but some years ago, in the context of one of our frequent conversations about the importance of memory in our lives, he mentioned it and said that it had greatly affected him. We can probably appreciate what it means for a year old to have passed a supreme test, to have done the impossible.

We can understand how one could draw strength from such an event, especially if — as was the case for Amos — achieving the almost impossible was not a once-off thing. Amos achieved the almost impossible many times, in different contexts. Amos derived some quiet pleasure from one aspect of his record: by a large margin, he published more articles in Psychological Review , the prestigious theory journal of the discipline, than anyone else in the history of that journal, which goes back more than years.

He had two pieces in press in Psychological Review when he died. But other aspects of the record are even more telling than this statistic. The number of gems and enduring classics sets Amos apart even more. His early work on transitivity violations, elimination by aspects, similarity, the work we did together on judgment, prospect theory and framing, the Hot Hand, the beautiful work on the disjunction effect and Argument-Based Choice, and most recently an achievement of which Amos was particularly proud: Support Theory.

How did he do it? There are many stories one could tell. You might think that having the best mind in the field and the most efficient work style would suffice. But there was more. Amos had simply perfect taste in choosing problems, and he never wasted much time on anything that was not destined to matter. He also had an unfailing compass that always kept him going forward. I can attest to that from long experience. It is not uncommon for me to write dozens of drafts of a paper, but I am never quite sure that they are actually improving, and often I wander in circles.

Almost everything I wrote with Amos also went through dozens of drafts, but when you worked with Amos you just knew. There would be many drafts, and they would get steadily better. Amos and I wrote an article in Science in It took us a year. We would meet at the van Leer Institute in Jerusalem for hours a day. On a good day we would mark a net advance of a sentence or two. It was worth every minute. And I have never had so much fun. When we started work on Prospect Theory it was , and in about 6 months we had been through odd versions of the theory and had a paper ready for a conference.

We spent the better part of the following four years debugging it, trying to anticipate every objection. There was never any hurry, any thought of compromising quality for speed. We could do it because Amos said the work was important, and you could trust him when he said that. We could also do it because the process was so intensely enjoyable. But even that is not all. In his growing wisdom Amos believed that Psychology is almost impossible, because there is just not all that much we can say that is both important and demonstrably true.

The unique ability Amos had — no one else I know comes close — was to find the one place where the terrain will yield for Amos, usually gold — and then to take it all. What Amos had done did not need redoing. Whether or not to over-reach was a source of frequent, and frequently productive tension between Amos and me over nearly 30 years. I have always wanted to do more than could be done without risk of error, and have always taken pride in preferring to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong.

And time and time again he managed to be precisely right on things that mattered. Wisdom was part of his genius. Solving problems was a lifelong source of intense joy for him, and the fact that he was richly rewarded for his problem solving never undermined that joy. Much of the joy was social. He enjoyed working with colleagues and students, and he was supremely good at it. And his joy was infectious. The 12 or 13 years in which most of our work was joint were years of interpersonal and intellectual bliss.

Everything was interesting, almost everything was funny, and there was the recurrent joy of seeing an idea take shape. So many times in those years we shared the magical experience of one of us saying something which the other would understand more deeply than the speaker had done. Contrary to the old laws of information theory, it was common for us to find that more information was received than had been sent. I have almost never had that experience with anyone else.

The information is sometimes updated with an addendum submitted by the Laureate. The answer that Frederick and I proposed refers to the conversational context in which the early work was done: A comprehensive psychology of intuitive judgment cannot ignore such controlled thinking, because intuition can be overridden or corrected by self-critical operations, and because intuitive answers are not always available. Journal of Experimental Psychology : General, , Arrow, K. Risk perception in psychology and economics. Economic Inquiry , 20, Ayton, P. How bad is human judgment? In Forecasting with judgment, G.

Goodwin Eds. Bateman, I. Is there loss aversion in buying? An adversarial collaboration. Cohen, L. Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? The Behavioral and Brain Sciences , 4, Coombs, C. Mathematical Psychology: An elementary introduction. Oxford, England: Prentice-Hall. Cosmides, L. Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty.

Cognition , 58, Erev, I. Games and Economic Behavior , 23, Gigerenzer, G. Hewstone Eds. Chichester, England: Wiley. On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A rebuttal to Kahneman and Tversky Psychological Review , , Gilovich, T. Varieties of regret: A debate and partial resolution. Kahneman, D. Training agents of social change in Israel: Definitions of objectives and a training approach. Human Organization , 25, Attention and Effort. On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review , 80, l. Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica , 47, Choices, values and frames. American Psychologist , 39, Fairness as a constraint on profit seeking: Entitlements in the market. The American Economic Review , 76, Fairness and the assumptions of economics.

Journal of Business , 59, SS Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the Coase theorem. Journal of Political Economy , , 98 6 , Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychological Review , 93, Experimental economics: A psychological perspective. Tietz, W. Albers and R. Selten Eds. When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science , 4, New challenges to the rationality assumption. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics , , Reprinted as Kahneman, D. Legal Theory , 3, , Economic preferences or attitude expressions? An analysis of dollar responses to public issues.

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , 19, Reprinted as Ch. Kahneman, D, and Tversky, A. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. Gilovich, D. Griffin and D. Kahneman Eds. New York: Cambridge University Press, Klein, G. The fiction of optimization. In Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox , G. Selton Eds. Latham, G. Laibson, D. Amos Tversky and the ascent of behavioral economics.

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , 16, Lopes, The rhetoric of irrationality. Theory and Psychology , 1, Meehl, P. Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. Mellers, A. Do frequency representations eliminate conjunction effects? An exercise in adversarial collaboration. Psychological Science , 12, Mischel, W. Preference for delayed reinforcement and social-responsibility. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology , 62, Delay of gratification, need for achievement, and acquiescence in another culture. Raiffa, H. Decision analysis: Introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Schreiber, C.

Determinants of the remembered utility of aversive sounds, Journal of Experimental Psychology : General, , Sloman, S. The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. Psychological Bulletin , , Stanovich, K. Who is Rational? Lawrence Erlbaum. Mahwah, New Jersey. Sunstein, C. Predictably incoherent judgments. Standard Law Review. Thaler, R. V sad to learn that you "and your ilk" have been pushing gender identity ideology, weka. You kept that so quiet I've never noticed it even once.

Wow, I read and dont comment on these posts as im out of my depth but making an exception thos time. I clicked through on Hostile environment reads like an incel thread on 4chan… unreal…. Thanks Weka for a really solid article on this topic. You have done, and taken the place of, the NZ media who are all but absent on critical analysis of this area. Emily Claire Hari , who was previously known as Michael Hari and recently said she is transgender , faced a mandatory minimum of 30 years for the attack on Dar al-Farooq Islamic Center in Bloomington.

Well i guess that spending up to 30 years in the slammer for terrorism is easier to do in a female prison then a male one. Now i just wonder if the guy identifies as a "Translesbian" and if he gets to bunk with a biological female. One of the jobs of law writers and law makers is to provide exceptions, to consider unintended consequences, and to consider what can go wrong. That is NOT the same as saying transwomen are paedophiles, unless you completely lack reading comprehension. So one task of law makers is how do we close that loophole.

And risk the media raining down on them? This is about balancing multiple rights- trans, women and children. People confuse fear for women's safety with transphobia. The accusations levelled against SUFW are unfair for the following reasons… If anyone can say they are a women, no matter how they present, women cannot challenge them if Self ID is passed. This is the issue. Women because of our biology need safe, private facilities.

It is an abuse of our dignity, to expect us to deal with periods, deal with pregnancy issues, both before and after birth, beside men in toilet cubicles and at wash basins. I have been in the loo with fully transgender women, does not bother me at all, but I know when I am in the vicinity of an unknown male and it is a completely different feeling. It is a feeling of I want out of here as soon as possible. This is unfair on women. We need male, female and neutral facilities. Leave this field empty. Older posts Share this: Twitter Facebook Related. Share this: Twitter Facebook Related. A brief outline of the problems with sex self-ID The BDMRR Bill makes changing biological sex to nominated sex on their birth certificate easier for trans and non binary people.

This is a good thing for those people. Trans and non-binary people should have the same access to documentation and ability to take part in civil life as the rest of the population. Transgender, non-binary, or any gender non-conforming person should not have to medically or surgically transition in order to live the way they want to live. Self-ID based on gender identity is a legislative change and a social change and a political change.

Gender identity ideology is the philosophical belief that everyone has a personal, internal gender that only they can determine. Gender identity politics now says that being a trans woman requires no transition whatsoever. This alongside legal and social self-ID means that any male can say they are a woman at any time and this is to be accepted no birth certificate required. In addition, women being with women is a positive and necessary condition for women to have their own politics and social well-being.

Open and informed debate about sex vs gender has been actively suppressed by gender identity activists and political parties the Greens and Labour. Where this is already happening internationally including by men with convictions for sex offenses , women are being sexually assaulted, and women with PTSD from sexual or other assault are being further traumatised. Women inmates are having to organise sleeping in shifts and to have condoms.

Women needing services after rape or domestic abuse that are female only, may no longer have that option. This is already happening internationally. The need for women to have female-only space after being raped should be self-evident, but in the UK gender identity activists are lobbying to remove single sex exemptions under human rights legislation, and internationally rape crisis groups that still provide female only services are under immense pressure to include males again, with social self-ID, any male who says he is a woman is one. Again, where is the political push for solutions for both groups eg dedicated rape crisis services for trans women? Women wanting to run female only spaces and groups may not be able to, either via law or via social pressure and cancellation.

Again, this is already happening internationally. The Speak Up For Women submission template page. Share this: Twitter Facebook. Questioning 1. Jan Rivers 1. Visubversa 2. Gypsy 4. Gezza 5. Visubversa 5. Nic the NZer 5. Joanne Perkins 5. Molly 5. Jan Rivers …. Joanne Perkins …. Molly …. Siobhan 2 6. Gypsy 6. Forget now 7. Visubversa 7. Nic the NZer 7. Molly 7. Nic the NZer …. Anker 7. Jan Rivers 7. Tabletennis 8. Forget now 8. Anker 8. Forget now …. Anker 9. Mika Gezza Psycho Milt Anker Nic the NZer Molly Gypsy The Fairy Godmother Tabletennis Incognito Cricklewood Jan Rivers Sabine Delia Leave a Comment Cancel reply. Your comment. Kram to gsays on. Grafton Gully to KJT on. Shanreagh to gsays on. Peter 1 to Cricklewood on. DukeEll on. David Seymour is all class.

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Barfly to Patricia Bremner on. DS on. McFlock to Graeme on. Tricledrown to Joe90 on. Tricledrown to Graeme on. Barfly to Ad on. Ad to miravox on. Graeme to McFlock on. Graeme on. Red Blooded One to alwyn on. Maurice to Tricledrown on. Maurice to McFlock on. Maurice on. Subliminal to weka on. Ad to swordfish on. Adrian on. Recent Posts David Seymour is all class. Terra Incognita. Chevron v Donziger. Pandora papers and NZ. Gender split is interesting in latest poll. Gut Feeling and Common Sense. Holding our covid nerve. Right now Sonny Fatupaito is an essential worker. Who are these angry Aucklanders? Goodbye Gladys.

China, Australia, and Coal Energy. Covid does not give a fuck about your plans. This turkey is struggling cooped up in a bubble. Highway to the Danger Zone. Government introduces law to assist tenants. About the latest Colmar Brunton poll. Smug hermit king. Germany Votes: Where To Now. Fearmongering or telling it how it is? The Golden Ticket. The more difficult end to the vaccination programme.

Why did the chicken cross the road? Lockdown decision — which way will it go? Feeds Party Government Media. Vaccination is fast becoming a condition of employment, and also a requirement to participate in aspects of social life, such as travel, attending bars, cafes, and concerts etc. These protective measures enjoy a high level Gordon Campbell By lyndon. Democracy Project By bryce. In preparing it, I looked at the Hansard for the first reading debate, and got name-dropped as someone likely to make a submission.

So, of course I did. I focus on a small bit of the Public Address. You may have read last week that two years after the publication of regulations for medicinal cannabis — and three years after the enabling legislation — two local products from a local manufacturer have finally met the minimum quality standards for prescription. You may also be interested to know that Its a US law journal article, so is a very long; and b half footnotes different disciplines have different norms , but the core idea is that the The good news is that New Zealand is looking at joining it.

The bad news is that that won't Sixty community cases of Covid, one of the highest daily totals so far Bowalley Road. It took a few days for event owners to absorb the information and understand the implications. By the end of the working week, most of the big Political reporting enmasse like this gives cartoonists and political junkies a smorgasbord to get their teeth into. Essential and I daresay vital reading for those who care about the future of NZ. Skeptical Science. A bit of good news on the writing front. My word short story, The Night of Parmenides, has been accepted by SpecFicNZ for their upcoming Aftermath anthology, to be published in early This is my first published short story to be explicitly set in my home-town of A Phuulish Fellow By strda Frankly Speaking By Frank Macskasy.

It would appear we have an unwelcome presence in town. Positive wastewater results had been detected in Hamilton and Palmerston North on October 6 and 7. One of the people in hospital is in Palmerston Left hand palm By lurgee. It seems that we have been kidding ourselves when we celebrated our low total number of Bryan Gould By Bryan Gould. Force Multiplier: Why are Ardern and her ministers so loathe to put a bit of stick about? To maximise the success of this The elimination of Covid strategy is not so much defeated but changing circumstances means that policy has to evolve. Our elimination stance was never sustainable or at least it would not be until the rest of the world also eliminated Covid Elimination of the virus was a strategy we adopted Pundit By Brian Easton.

Yesterday the Supreme Court ruled on National's unjust "three strikes" law, and found that the sentence it required was in the case in question so disproportionate as to "shock the conscience" and violate the Bill of Rights Act ban on disproportionately severe treatment or punishment : The Supreme Court has The Christchurch City Council has published new "coastal hazards" data, indicating which places are under threat from sea-level rise. And its not good news : Parts of Christchurch and Banks Peninsula are likely to become unhabitable [sic] as the city council figures out how to adapt to sea level I wonder if Mike Hosking ever reads the paper in which he appears so regularly? Congratulations, Mr Barnett, Ms White, and your business colleagues.

But at least businesses will open up. Put a bit of stick about — and listen to us cheer! Today we are very pleased to Being able to stand on one leg is linked to increased levels of physical SciBlogs By Guest Author. Last month the Emissions Trading Scheme turned into a farce , when the government flooded the market with credits in a failed and wasteful attempt to Keep Carbon Prices Low. When I asked about the background of this policy Climate Change Minister James Shaw sent me one of the most egregious My recent re-read of The Lord of the Rings reminded me of one of the vaguer head-scratchers in Tolkien.

Philip Heron, University of Toronto ; Fabio Crameri, University of Oslo , and Grace Shephard, University of Oslo The choice of colour to represent information in scientific images is a fundamental part of communicating findings. However, a number of colour palettes that are widely used to display critical scientific results are However, it has The difference lies in the breakdown between their paid and unpaid workloads. That equation is influenced by many things, including education, qualifications, age, ethnicity, financial status, number and age of dependants, gendered and To date, Aotearoa NZ has relied almost I try to ignore it but my cursor creeps inexorably towards the Justice Minister Kris Faafoi has announced that major reforms will be investigated in the areas of political donation rules, promising changes that will Free Falling?

New Zealanders needed to hear Jacinda take a firm line on vaccination, issuing stern warnings to those who declared their intention to refuse. Last month, in the wake of the September carbon auction, I talked about how the government's policy of flooding the market with a "cost containment reserve" of an extra 7 million tons of pollution in an effort to keep carbon costs low was a huge waste of money. Ministry for Beautiful, Inspiring, Mysterious! How do you describe space? What do you think when you look up at the stars? The United Nations General Assembly certainly knew how beautiful, inspiring, mysterious, and important space is when they designated a week to be World Space Week.

SciBlogs By John Pickering. Well it has been fun living in the safest country in the world for a year and a half, but a combination of cynical politics from the right, and dithering incompetence from the left, and selfish sociopathy or ignorance on the part of the population , means New Zealand is Former rugby league star Manu Vatuvei has admitted importing methamphetamine.

The Warriors icon was charged in December with possessing methamphetamine for supply and importing the Class A drug. There has been much discussion about how woke the new James Bond is and how Redline By Admin. One of the big steps forward in climate change policy was when cabinet started demanding climate change assessments of policy , so when they built that road or changed energy or farm policy, they'd know what they were doing and be able to make an informed decision and if not, one As readers may be aware, I and everyone else have been having a growing problem with OIA extensions for "consultations". They're being used by agencies to juke the stats , scam extra time, and cover up administrative failure.

So I've taken up complaining about them. And last night, I got a Yes, the United Nations is saying that things are really, really bad in those Its categorised links to original content are an excellent online source of news and commentary each day. The topic was are the estimates of economic damages from climate change erroneous? The basic answer to this questions is yes. The presenters make a This morning the government announced an "independent" review of electoral law , to look at "changes to the voting age, the three-year Parliamentary term, funding of political parties, overseas voting and Electoral Commission recommendations on MMP".

My feelings about this are Firstly, an independent review of the voting age would O ne can sympathise with firms struggling under the financial stress caused by Covid restrictions. The format also champions New Zealand journalism: grouping articles by subject shows the diversity of reporting and But choose your guests wisely — only fully vaccinated Until there are high levels of immunity, any relaxation of restrictions within Wildlife like grizzly and black bears, wolves, elk, moose, bison, Well, that was unexpected. Contrary to conventional wisdom and my own speculation it is not actually Galadriel.

Now, in theory there are a number of possible candidates here: Finrod Felagund, Aegnor, So, having saved us from Covid for 18 months, our government has just surrendered to the virus, announcing a "transition plan" to loosen restrictions while Covid is still spreading in the community. This is exactly the sort of insanity which has led to outbreaks and mass death in the UK These are a historical anachronism, a relic of a bygone era when the state was small and so outsourced prosecution to private law firms by way of regional monopoly.

The International Coalition of Investigative Journalists released its latest look at the theft of the rich and famous overnight, it he form of the andora Papers. There's the usual assortment of billionaires, thieves, and oligarchs - increasingly overlapping categories - and the usual famous names oh look! Tony Blair's a Introduction I was going to drive to Wellington for a funeral that day.

And when I got up, my car was gone. It was a Subaru Forester of vintage. The paintwork was near immaculate and everything ran smoothly. Not just on a casual SciBlogs By Brendan Moyle. Bush was at the top of the list with global warming at number five. The article on global warming has now been re-titled as Conspicuously, New Zealand is not part of this agreement and the reason Pundit By Abdul Mohamud. There was one matter I saw for concern, which is detailed This is a supplementary powerpoint by Andy Higginbottom to his Capital Volume 4 lecture series in It was all looking so good. New Zealand had largely purged the virus out of the law-abiding community, and we were down to a small albeit highly Listing of articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, September 26, through Sat, October 2, The following articles sparked above average interest during the week: Ex-Fox host claims Facebook defamed him by fact-checking climate change videos by a wide margin!

The Herald must find itself on the horns of a dilemma. On the other hand, it wants to ensure that the government loses the next Acknowledgement: komerata. In a post lost to the mists of Internet time, on one of those forums like Tumblr or Ask A Manager, a tech support person related the tale of helping a member of the US military with a computer problem. Boots Theory By Stephanie Rodgers. Older posts. More and more of us are stepping up, with more than two million people now fully vaccinated.

Labour Blog. The Supreme Court decision to decline an application by Trans-Tasman Resources will help protect the seabed, marine mammals, fish and other marine life off the South Taranaki coast from seabed mining. A one-off broad residency pathway will ensure tens of thousands of migrants who have made Aotearoa New Zealand their home can settle here and thrive into the future. The Green Party says expanding coverage for birth injuries is a step in the right direction, but much more still needs to be done to ensure ACC is a person-centred organisation that provides comprehensive support for all birth injuries and birth trauma.

The health system is ready for the implementation of the End of Life Choice Act when it takes effect next month, making assisted dying legal in New Zealand, Health Minister Andrew Little said today. The law received Beehive By beehive. The Government will extend Working Holiday visas and Supplementary Seasonal Employment SSE work visas for six months to provide more certainty to employers and visa holders over the coming summer period, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi has announced. The Bill to help lower the cost of the fees retailers get charged for offering contactless and debit payment options is another step closer to becoming law, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Dr David Clark said today. High-risk workers in the health and disability sector to be fully vaccinated by 1 December, , and to receive their first dose by 30 October School and early learning staff and support people who have contact with children and students to be fully vaccinated by 1 January, , and to The Minister for Small Business says support for small and medium enterprises will remain ongoing as the Asia-Pacific region moves through response and recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Abortion services can now be provided in primary care, meaning people can access this care from someone like their trusted GP and in a familiar setting, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. The doses are made up We are focused on increasing the productivity, inclusivity, and resilience of our respective primary sectors. As agri-food exporting nations, we also share a commitment to a Northland will move to Alert Level 3 restrictions from pm tonight following recent information on the risk presented by the positive case initially tested in Whangarei earlier this week and confirmed in Auckland yesterday, COVID Response Minister Chris Hipkins said.

The person is now in an Auckland Managed Isolation Quarantine It can be anything you want — a traditional Greetings and Acknowledgements and Warm Pacific Greetings to one and all. COVID has been described as a one in She has been appointed for two years. The third round of the Resurgence Support Payment opened for applications this morning. New Zealand is changing and growing, and there are some significant challenges presenting not only now with The Government and businesses are working together to pilot the use of rapid antigen testing in workplaces, Associate Minister of Health and Research, Science and Innovation Ayesha Verrall announced today.

This follows the introduction of rapid antigen testing at Middlemore Hospital. It will start within the next few days at Churches play a critical role in crisis management for Pacific communities and while we celebrate White Sunday, I want them to take the opportunity to strongly recommend with the COVID lockdown in Auckland, online virtual services, said Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio.

Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta has announced New Zealand will send a Special Representative for Afghanistan to the Middle East to support New Zealand citizens, permanent residents and other visa holders who want to leave Afghanistan as the humanitarian situation on the ground continues to deteriorate. Dependent on property acquisition and consents, construction will begin early next year on package of safety improvements on SH2 between Masterton and Carterton. The new recovery investment is being Government support for a mountain-to-sea landscape scale project to clean up rivers in the Marlborough Sounds will open up dozens of new job opportunities, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says.

The fishery will initially reopen for three months from 1 December and be closely monitored, Oceans and Fisheries Minister David Parker said. Sandra was passionate about people and The Deputy Public Service Commissioner works Targeted electoral changes to support the delivery of, and participation in the General Election Wider independent review of electoral laws ahead of the General Election, with an independent panel to report back by I acknowledge all those involved.

From the board room negotiations, to weathering the heavy swells of Foveaux Strait to find suitable space; and all the conversations and decisions in After a year of small net migration gains from Australia, the latest six months indicate small net migration losses to Australia, Stats NZ said today. There were provisional net migration losses to Australia of 1, and 2, in the December Scoop politics. Today marks a quarter century since the first election held under MMP. To celebrate, the Electoral Commission has disinterred the ads that explained the new system. After years of mostly first-past-the-post The Spinoff By Group Think.

FintechNZ wants to see more commitment to green tech to help climate change and move toward a sustainable financial services sector. Reducing carbon emissions to net zero is now as urgent as ever, but so is adjusting to the hazards of a warming The Office of the Inspectorate today released a report that examines why and how people are moved between prisons. The thematic report examines the rationale and challenges of prisoner transfers. It also provides insights into the impacts of transfers People in prison have their liberty restricted making Evening Report By Bryce Edwards.

According to modelling carried out by the Counties Manukau District Health Board, if border restrictions are loosened for arrivals from countries with high Covid numbers, South Auckland will see between The Spinoff By Justin Latif. Evening Report By The Conversation. Amid concerns over lost friendships and social skills , people But merely The Spinoff By Samson Samasoni. Auckland is now at step one of the alert level three pathway, Northland and parts of Waikato are in regular level three. Reach me on stewart thespinoff. Along with a new vaccination mandate for teachers, public health experts say a work programme will be needed to make schools safer during the delta outbreak, Justin Giovannetti writes in The Bulletin. A change of plans for schools.

All teachers will be required to receive their first dose of the Covid vaccination The Spinoff By Justin Giovannetti. Today marks the 25th anniversary of the first ever MMP election in New Zealand, the biggest change to the country's electoral system since women were given the right to vote more than a century ago. Radio NZ — political. It goes back to when I was a weekly television critic on the DomPost , a quite lovely job, no silly old contract or anything like that.

It lasted for nearly 10 years The first prosecutions have finally been taken over alleged abuse of the wage subsidy scheme. David Williams reports In March last year, as the country faced the coronavirus-enforced uncertainty of a national lockdown, Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced changes to the wage subsidy scheme. Changes were aimed at tying employees Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The Spinoff is currently accepting applications for two new editorial positions, both of which signal our ongoing commitment to publishing journalism that reflects the many voices of Aotearoa.

The Spinoff By The Spinoff. Now she sits on the other side of the city, waiting for him to come home. For the first time in a very long time, more New Zealanders are coming home than are leaving. Paul Spoonley looks at what else we can learn about our diaspora through our pandemic response. Christmas is coming — which would normally mean a surge in arrivals from overseas. But not this The Spinoff By Paul Spoonley. Simon Keller lays out a case for why mature democracies like ours should extend the right to vote to children as young as 10 In a true democracy, voting is a right, not a privilege. You do not need to earn the right to vote.

It is not contingent on As restrictions in Auckland ease and positive Covid case numbers rise, careful planning of health and safety rules could protect a workplace from exposing itself to a potential lawsuit. As a nationwide campaign encourages our tamariki to give running, jumping and throwing a go, Suzanne McFadden talks to three track and field stars about their first athletics club memories. Floods of them. It was a club night at the Waharoa Athletics Club in How's that working out for us? It was one of the most significant developments in the history of electoral reform in this The Government is putting on a brave face and insisting that Level 3 restrictions in Auckland will hold, but the true hope is that vaccinations will cross the 90 percent threshold before we have to find out the hard way, Marc Daalder reports Analysis: The Government is now playing a game The Ministry of Health's legal pre-manoeuvres to ensure it can use private Covid tester Rako Science's supplies and facilities come after it dismissed the firm's offers to help in the national Covid effort.

PM claws back public confidence in Government's decision-making. More fossil fuel energy goes into producing our bread than the energy we will derive from eating it The vaccination programme to date has been uneven around the country, but the biggest disparity has been for Labour last week stated that, a vaccination certificate will be imposed by November this year, and a vaccination passport will soon be implemented.

The House - As an eighteen-year-old high school student from West Auckland, New Zealand's politicians have always felt unreachable. Then for a week, I got to see the inside as a fly on Parliament's wall. Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov will no doubt benefit from their increased prominence and status. At the same time, This follows news Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is being questioned by Auckland will remain in alert level 3, step 1, for at least one more week while Waikato and Northland will stay in level 3 until Take it from me: starting a new job at a new workplace amid a global pandemic is a bizarre experience.

I still The Spinoff By Reweti Kohere. The prime minister is expected to discuss any alert level changes, when she addresses a media briefing after today's Cabinet meeting. Last Thursday, vocal anti-Covid restriction and anti-vaccine lobby group Voices For Freedom sent a newsletter to its followers detailing updated information on how to procure a The Spinoff By Leonie Hayden. The Government has an obligation to protect the right to health and life. This includes Together, these changes will provide Cabinet is scheduled to meet today to assess alert level restrictions, with announcements to be made during a 4pm press conference.

We look forward to hearing from the PM at that time.

Building on prospect theory and Kahneman and Kahnemans Rational Economic Model Examples Of Climate Change Speech of work, Thaler published Kahnemans Rational Economic Model a Positive Theory of Consumer Kahnemans Rational Economic Model ina paper which Kahnemans Rational Economic Model has called "the founding text in behavioral economics " Kahneman,p. Kahnemans Rational Economic Model learned a lot from it. Not only is the population sample Kahnemans Rational Economic Model self-selecting, but:. I don't see this kind of Kahnemans Rational Economic Model as an absence of critical thinking, Kahnemans Rational Economic Model at least an Essay On Transcendentalism one.

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